Heavy Monsoon Rains Expected Tuesday, Tarbela Dam Nears Capacity

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has warned of urban flooding and inundation in low-lying areas of several cities, including Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Sheikhupura, Kasur, Faisalabad, Multan, Sahiwal, Okara, Bahawalnagar, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Sialkot, the Potohar region, Peshawar, and Nowshera, as heavy monsoon rains are expected on Tuesday, August 4. The Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) also warned of flash flooding in hill torrents and local streams across Kashmir, Murree, Galiyat, northeastern Punjab, the Potohar region, parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Dera Ghazi Khan.

Medium to high flows are anticipated in nullahs linked to the Jhelum, Chenab, and Ravi rivers, with flash floods also likely in the hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan, streams in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Kabul River and its tributaries, and parts of northern Balochistan. Landslides are feared in mountainous districts of upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, including Dir, Swat, Kohistan, Buner, Battagram, Mansehra, Shangla, and Abbottabad, as well as Murree, Galiyat, and the hilly areas of Azad Kashmir.

The FFD reported that the Indus River at Kalabagh, Guddu, and Sukkur, and the Ravi at Balloki, are currently flowing at a low flood level. Authorities have been urged to remain on alert and take precautionary measures. According to the Water and Power Development Authority’s (Wapda) daily water report, Tarbela Dam’s water level has risen to 1,543 feet, nearing its maximum capacity. On Monday, the Indus at Tarbela recorded inflows of 250,700 cusecs and outflows of 191,900 cusecs. The Kabul River at Nowshera recorded both inflows and outflows of 43,700 cusecs, while the Jhelum at Mangla registered inflows of 44,700 cusecs and outflows of 7,000 cusecs. The Chenab at Marala recorded inflows of 85,900 cusecs and outflows of 69,900 cusecs.

Heavy monsoon rains have led to significant damage and casualties across Pakistan. In Lower Chitral, the Jaghoor Gol Nullah overflowed, damaging 26 houses and one mosque, washing away a connecting bridge, and cutting off land connections to several areas. Agricultural land was also affected, with Rescue 1122 teams engaged in relief operations.

In Rawalpindi and Islamabad, heavy rainfall submerged numerous low-lying areas, including Dhok Khabba's main road, Nadeem Colony, Javed Colony, Fazalabad, Dhok Elahi Bakhsh, Arya Mohalla, and Sadiqabad, with water reaching up to one foot in streets. Saddar, Murree Chowk, Murree Road, and various underpasses also experienced water accumulation. An ambulance carrying a patient got stuck in water in Dhok Khabba, and shops in the area sustained damage. Tragically, a 6-year-old child drowned in a nullah on Girja Road, Rawalpindi, with rescue operations underway.

In Mansehra, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, three schoolgirls were swept away in a nullah; two bodies have been recovered, while one girl was rescued. Wazirabad experienced paralyzed civic life, with streets, markets, and roads submerged, and the drainage system failing to cope, causing financial losses to traders and stranding vehicles.

Lahore recorded significant rainfall, with Shadman and Shadi Pura receiving 55mm, Gulberg 54mm, Mughalpura 50mm, and Tajpura 34mm. Other areas like Farooqabad, Renala Khurd, Sheikhupura, Chak Jhumra, Kamoke, Nankana Sahib, Sharqpur Sharif, Dina, and Bahawalnagar also received heavy rain. In Kamoke, service roads, GT Road, and underpasses were severely affected, impacting traffic.

The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) reported that water flows in the Chenab, Jhelum, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers, as well as Dera Ghazi Khan's hill torrents, are currently normal. However, the Indus River at Kalabagh is experiencing a low-level flood with an inflow of 273,000 cusecs and an outflow of 266,000 cusecs. Nullah Palkhu at Wazirabad also has a low-level flood with a flow of 3,000 cusecs. The fourth spell of monsoon rains is expected to continue until August 5, with urban flooding risks identified for Lahore, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Sialkot, Faisalabad, and Multan. Landslide risks are also present in Murree, Galiyat, and other hilly areas. The Director General of PDMA has advised citizens in riverbeds to move to safe locations.

A major windstorm occurred on August 1st, alongside heavy rainfall, as part of the ongoing monsoon weather system across Pakistan.

Following recent rains, Pakistan's water reserves have significantly improved. Official figures indicate that the country's major dams are now 72% full, with the total stored water in key reservoirs reaching 9.466 million acre-feet (MAF). This represents 72% of the total storage capacity of 13.149 MAF, and water inflow into the Indus River system has notably increased, exceeding outflow.

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has released a report detailing the impact of monsoon rains across the country from June 26 to August 1. According to the report, 126 people have died and 404 have been injured.

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has warned that water levels in Pakistan's major rivers are expected to rise significantly between August 2 and 4. High-level flooding has been recorded in the Lehri River at Head Gogi, and medium-level flooding in Nullah Palkhu at Wazirabad. Low-level flooding continues at Guddu and Sukkur along the Indus River, and at Head Nari on the Nari River.

Low to medium level flows are forecast at Khanki and Qadirabad on the Chenab River. Water levels are also expected to rise in the Jhelum and Kabul rivers and their tributaries. The NDMA cautioned that streams linked to the Jhelum, Chenab, and Ravi rivers could experience medium to high flows, and that water levels in the Ravi and Sutlej will depend on releases from Indian reservoirs.

The authority also warned of flash flood risks in the hill torrents of Rajanpur, and seasonal streams in central and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Urban flooding and rainwater accumulation are anticipated in low-lying areas of Jhelum, Mardan, Nowshera, and Thatta, in addition to previously identified cities.

A new monsoon system has reportedly entered Karachi, contributing to the ongoing heavy rainfall in the city.

Civic life in Hyderabad remained paralysed on Sunday due to intermittent rainfall. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) recorded 42mm of rain in Latifabad and 40mm in the City Office until 5pm. Power outages were widely reported, with the Hyderabad Electric Supply Company (Hesco) stating that electricity supply was suspended on 285 of its 722 11kV feeders. In Hyderabad city, 66 of 166 feeders were without electricity. Major roads were inundated, and water supply was severely affected as facilities of the Hyderabad Water and Sewerage Corporation (HWSC) also lost power. Business activities in areas like City Cloth Market, Tower Market, Anaj Mandi, and Latifabad Units 5, 10, 11, and 12 were disrupted due to submerged roads.

Elsewhere in Sindh, Mithi district recorded the highest rainfall with 126mm until 8am on Sunday, followed by Chhor with 81mm and Badin with 69mm.

Rainfall in Hyderabad has brought relief, effectively ending a recent heatwave. Additionally, light to heavy rain has been reported across various areas of Karachi.