India Unlikely to Export Sugar for Several Years, Squeezing Global Supply

India is expected to have little to no surplus sugar for export for at least the next three seasons, a significant shift that is likely to tighten the global market. The country, once the world’s second-largest sugar exporter, is facing a combination of factors that are squeezing its domestic supply.

The primary reasons for the expected shortfall are the El Niño weather pattern, which threatens to reduce sugarcane production, and a rising domestic demand for ethanol, for which sugarcane is a key feedstock. India’s sugar output for the current season is now forecast to be 27.9 million tonnes, which is below the annual domestic consumption of about 28.5 million tonnes. As a result, inventories are projected to fall to their lowest level in over three decades. Some analysts suggest that if weather conditions are severe, India could be forced to import sugar for the first time since the 2017-18 season.

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Updated: 7:43 PM PKT — June 23, 2026

India’s prolonged absence from the sugar export market is expected to tighten supplies for importers across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. On average, India exported 6.8 million metric tonnes of sugar annually in the five seasons leading up to 2022-23. This year, exports were banned until September 30 after about 800,000 tonnes were shipped. Government sources indicate that export permissions will likely be withheld on a season-by-season basis rather than through a multi-year ban. The situation is compounded by other major exporters, with top producer Brazil diverting more sugarcane for ethanol and Thailand’s output potentially being affected by El Niño-related weather.

India is expected to have little to no surplus sugar for export for at least three more seasons, a development attributed to the combined pressures of El Niño weather conditions and rising domestic demand for ethanol.

The country, which was the world’s second-largest sugar exporter, has seen its cane production threatened by potential El Niño-curtailed rains. Simultaneously, an increasing amount of sugarcane is being diverted for ethanol production. These factors are expected to keep millions of tons of sugar off the world market, tightening supplies for importers in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

After exporting around 800,000 tons this year, India banned further shipments until September 30.

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